Probability and Statistics: Making Sense of Randomness
What probability means, how the bell curve works, what z-scores and confidence intervals actually tell you, and why sample size matters.
A runner finishes a marathon in 3 hours and 30 minutes. Was that fast? It depends — do you think in minutes per mile, minutes per kilometre, or kilometres per hour? The same speed can feel impressive or mediocre depending on the unit. Behind every pace, fuel efficiency, or travel time calculation sits one deceptively simple equation: speed = distance / time.
The relationship speed = distance / time can be rearranged three ways. Cover the variable you want to find and the remaining two show you the operation:
speed = distance / time
distance = speed × time
time = distance / speed
Example: 150 km at 60 km/h
time = 150 / 60 = 2.5 hours = 2 h 30 minThe most common source of errors is mixing units. Memorise two conversions and derive the rest:
Runners measure speed as pace (time per distance) rather than speed per hour. A 4:00 min/km pace means it takes exactly 4 minutes to cover one kilometre. To convert pace to speed: speed (km/h) = 60 / pace (min/km). So a 4:00 pace = 15 km/h.
| Race | Distance | Casual pace | Competitive |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5K | 5 km / 3.1 mi | 6:30/km | 3:30/km |
| 10K | 10 km / 6.2 mi | 7:00/km | 3:45/km |
| Half Marathon | 21.1 km / 13.1 mi | 7:30/km | 4:00/km |
| Marathon | 42.2 km / 26.2 mi | 8:00/km | 4:15/km |
A negative split means running the second half faster than the first. Most world records are set with negative or even splits. Starting too fast depletes glycogen early — the body hits “the wall” around 30 km in a marathon. A conservative first half preserves fuel for a stronger finish.
The US measures fuel efficiency in miles per gallon (MPG) — bigger is better. Most of the world uses litres per 100 kilometres (L/100km) — smaller is better. These are inverse relationships, which creates a surprising effect:
Converting between units:
L/100km = 235.215 / MPG
MPG = 235.215 / (L/100km)
Examples:
30 MPG = 235.215 / 30 = 7.84 L/100km
8 L/100km = 235.215 / 8 = 29.4 MPGThe calculation is straightforward: find how much fuel you need, then multiply by the price.
fuel needed = distance / efficiency
total cost = fuel needed × price per unit
Example (metric):
400 km trip, car does 8 L/100km, fuel costs $1.50/L
fuel = (400 / 100) × 8 = 32 litres
cost = 32 × $1.50 = $48.00
Example (imperial):
250 miles, 30 MPG, gas at $3.50/gal
fuel = 250 / 30 = 8.33 gallons
cost = 8.33 × $3.50 = $29.17The physics is simple — speed equals distance over time. The difficulty is always in the units. Get those right and the rest follows.
What probability means, how the bell curve works, what z-scores and confidence intervals actually tell you, and why sample size matters.
Area and volume formulas for every common shape, the Pythagorean theorem, Law of Sines and Cosines, and slope of a line.
How fractions work, why prime factorisation matters, the GCF and LCM connection, ratios, proportions, and percentages as fractions of 100.